Back in April, I wrote an article warning investors that during a bear market Tiffany's stock price could fall 45-65% off its highs.
Currently, Tiffany's stock is down about -40% off its recent high price.
This article examines Tiffany's historical price cyclicality to estimate some good entry points for the stock that include a margin of safety.
The article also backtests those entry points to see how they would have performed during past bear markets, and re-examines and updates the rotational strategy outlined in the original article.
Introduction
On April 25th, 2018, I published an article titled "How far could Tiffany fall?". In that article I pointed out that Tiffany (TIF) was a highly cyclical stock which was subject to frequent significant drawdowns in excess of -35%, and I shared the table below which contained all of Tiffany's significant drawdowns for the past several decades, when they started, how deep they were, and how long it took for the stock to recover its previous high price.
