Summary

Biogen is a solid biotech company with established revenue streams and strong financials.

The short-term growth of the company is heavily dependent on Spinraza's ex-US sales.

We are not buying Biogen's stock at this time. We'd rather wait and see if the stock drops further on any negative news or general market sell-off, if any.

Biogen's (BIIB) stock was trading at around $300-$330 within the past month. Due to unimpressive growth opportunities in currently marketed products, the stock has a Hold rating.

BIIB data by YCharts

From a pipeline point of view, many analysts consider Alzheimer's development success a binary event for Biogen. This may be the case, but we wanted to look at current business fundamentals and see what the growth looks like even without Alzheimer's trial outcomes.

We think this is really helpful in order to understand the worst case scenarios and to estimate how much we can lose if the Alzheimer's trials fail and/or the US economy enters recession by 2020.

Healthcare, in general, is considered to be a defensive industry (patients still buy the drugs no matter what), but the healthcare access in many countries would be more restrictive during economic downturns.

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